Pack odds explained: pull rates, EV and chase slots

A pull rate is how often a rarity turns up across a large number of packs. “One in ten packs” does not promise a hit in every tenth pack; it is an average over many openings, and any single pack is independent of the last one.

Each set lists its own rates by slot and rarity. You can compare every set side by side on the odds and prices page, and the words used there (slot, reverse holo, illustration rare, hit) are defined in the glossary.

A pack is built from slots. Most slots always hold commons or uncommons; a reverse-holo slot can hold any card in a foil finish; and the rare slot is where the rarity ladder lives. Odds are quoted per slot, so a pack's chances are the combined chances of its slots, not one number.

The chase slot is the slot that can hold a set's most sought-after cards: the top rarities and special illustrations people open a set hoping for. Those cards are rare by design, and a large share of a set's total card value usually sits in them. When you look at a set, check both how rare the chase cards are and how much the rest of the pack is worth without them.

Expected value is the average market value of the cards in a pack, weighted by the odds of each one. You work it out by multiplying each card's chance of appearing by its market price, then adding those up across every slot.

A simple made-up example: if one slot has a one-in-twenty chance of a card worth forty dollars and otherwise holds cards worth almost nothing, that slot adds about two dollars of EV. Do the same for every slot and you have the pack's EV.

Two cautions. EV is an average over many packs, so a single pack usually lands well below or well above it. And it moves with market prices, so it is a snapshot, not a promise. EV is also not a way to make money: it is a gross average before any fees, and opening packs costs value over time. Each set page publishes its odds and pack price, so you can weigh the two yourself.

Published odds only matter if the packs follow them. PackLab commits to each box's contents before any pack is sold and reveals the proof after the box sells out, so anyone can check the result. The method is on the provably fair page, and you can audit any finished box on the verify page.

Opening a pack is buying a sealed product at published odds: every pack holds real cards that you keep, ship home, or sell back for store credit.